DACSI is the principal Dutch trade association for the securities and derivatives industry, with members among banks and the central securities depository. It has a track record for promoting and improving the smooth functioning of ‘securities post-trade’ and advocating the Dutch interests with legislators and supervisors. But while DACSI and other post-trade actors have been largely consumed by the implementation of post-crisis legislation in the last 10 years, it was time to focus on the future again, to prepare DACSI and its members for relevant industry-wide developments.
Changes in the complex securities infrastructure can take years and have always been more evolutionary than revolutionary. But in this volatile world, with fintechs and platforms on the rise and uncertain geopolitical developments, projects and investments with a long lifespan are under increased scrutiny. Can new technologies disrupt securities post-trade as they have disrupted other parts of financial services? Should we invest in new technologies or explore new partnerships and business models as disintermediation is becoming a potential threat?
Henk Brink, the chairman of DACSI, turned to Turner for help. What will the European post-trade sector look like in five to ten years and how can the Dutch post-trade industry be better equipped to adapt to changing circumstances without losing sight of our common long-term interests? Using scenario planning, Turner’s Thijs Venneman helped DACSI’s team to boil down numerous views and expectations from more than 30 studies and 25 interviews with leading industry experts into a set of key trends and developments and four plausible scenarios for 2025.
According to the analysis, the future of post-trade is predominantly influenced by 2 factors: the degree of political willingness to cooperate, determining the level of European financial integration, and the speed of technological innovation. The resulting four scenarios (Great reversal, Regional giants, In transition, Integrated legacy) provide valuable insights into plausible future outcomes for all post-trade actors.